A new poll at the University of Notre Dame shows former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris among likely student voters as the 2024 presidential race heats up. The Irish Rover survey, conducted among 705 students, revealed a surprising dead heat on campus, with 47.6 percent of respondents favoring Trump compared to 45.9 percent supporting Harris.
The poll, which was conducted from September 15-18, signals a stark turn in student political leanings, especially at a university known for its Catholic roots and a historically balanced political climate. The 2024 election, already viewed as one of the most polarized in recent memory, now finds Notre Dame students favoring a return to Trump’s leadership by a narrow margin.
The poll indicates a historic shift at Notre Dame, marking the first time in twelve years that the student body has favored the Republican presidential nominee. The data suggests a significant swing towards the former president compared to four years ago when Joe Biden secured 66 percent of the student vote, versus Trump’s 29 percent, in a poll by Student Government and NDVotes. Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by a margin of 59 percent to 24 percent in a similar survey.
While Trump’s lead remains slim, the results have revealed a growing trend of students bucking expectations of aligning with traditionally liberal candidates. In fact, the poll shows a politically divided campus, with many students rallying behind Trump’s economic message as both he and Harris tour key battleground states.
College Republicans President Elliot Anderson shared with the Rover, “It is amazing to see a college campus stand by President Trump. We hope that the trend of ultra-liberal colleges is finally coming to an end with the increasing youth support for conservative policies.”
“The last four years are why my family is on welfare,” one Catholic-identifying male voter stated, explaining his vote for Trump. Another student echoed a similar feeling, saying, “Honestly, the economy really needs to improve from what Biden and Harris are doing because it is becoming very hard to live.”
Trump’s popularity seems to stem partly from broad dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration’s performance. Among the students surveyed, only 35 percent expressed strong or moderate approval of the current administration, while 65 percent indicated they disapproved either strongly or somewhat. Notably, only 5 percent of respondents strongly approved of President Biden, whereas 40 percent strongly disapproved.
Catholic men supported Trump decisively, with a 63-28 percent margin, while Catholic women slightly favored Harris at 50-46 percent. Among non-Catholics, however, there was a marked preference for Harris: she led Trump 70-29 percent among non-Catholic men and 80-16 percent among non-Catholic women. Harris’s strongest backing came from women who identified as agnostic or atheist.
Harris, who is campaigning on continuing the Biden administration’s policies, has found herself struggling to galvanize younger voters in some traditionally liberal spaces. Many Notre Dame students appear to be leaning toward Trump’s promises of economic revitalization and national security. As Election Day draws near, both Trump and Harris will be pushing hard for the youth vote—one of the most crucial and often unpredictable demographics in modern U.S. elections.