A national pollster that frequently leans left is giving former President Donald Trump a lead if the election were held today, a sign that even mainstream outlets can’t extinguish the surge of support he’s receiving following a second assassination attempt.
Quinnipiac, which is best known for refuting the results of conservative pollsters like Rasmussen, released the results of its latest survey showing President Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 1% among likely voters. Trump collected 48% of support from respondents while Harris nabbed 47%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver each received 1%, and another 3% of voters remain undecided. The numbers are a notable shift from last month when Quinnipiac posted that Harris was leading Trump 49% to 47%.
Enthusiasm among Trump and Harris supporters is proving to be one of the pivotal factors, the survey suggests. About 70% of the vice president’s supporters say they are enthusiastic about supporting her while 71% reported similar enthusiasm for Trump, according to CBS2 Iowa. When it comes to favorability, both candidates are underwater; 47% of voters view Harris favorably while 48% view her unfavorably, and Trump scores 47% and 50%, respectively. Other results show that a majority of respondents (49%) believe Trump cares more about the needs of people like them.
Immigration and the economy, both top of voters’ minds this fall, are also the issues they trust Trump on the most, the pollster reported. Harris, meanwhile, scores the majority of support among voters who name nuclear weapons, preserving democracy, addressing gun violence and abortion rights their top issues. Interestingly, 51% of respondents trust Trump more in handling a major crisis, a result that harkens back to his time managing the development of a vaccine during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Nearly two in three voters say they are hoping to see a second debate between Trump and Harris. Additionally, nearly three in four say they are concerned about politically motivated violence, one that is underscored by the second assassination attempt against Trump less than two weeks ago. The former president’s supporters have pointed the finger at Harris and President Joe Biden for labeling him a “threat to democracy,” among other dangerous ripostes. Gina Raimondo, the administration’s top commerce official, on Tuesday said that voters should “extinguish” Trump for good, prompting another round of condemnation for her alarming rhetoric.
Quinnipiac’s results track with those from a New York Times/Sienna College poll earlier this week showing swing voters in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are trending away from Harris. In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by 5%, a marked shift from just a month ago when the vice president was ahead by the same amount. In North Carolina, Trump leads by 2% after Harris led by 2% last month; the same is true in Georgia, where Trump leads by 4% after previous polls showed Harris ahead by the same amount in mid-August. The expansive survey of nearly 2,700 voters was conducted the week after a second assassination attempt against President Trump, suggesting public sympathy may have again tilted back in his favor. The poll’s 3% margin of error means the Republican’s leads in Arizona and Georgia are statistically certain.