A new survey shows that former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, one of Donald Trump’s closest political allies, appears set to capture her party’s nomination over fellow GOP candidate and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
The poll, conducted by the Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) from July 22–23, revealed Lake leading by double digits among likely Republican voters. “Lake is, though, sitting at the coveted 50 percent threshold if the election were held today, and Lamb only at 38 percent,” NPI CEO Mike Noble told KTAR News 92.3 FM after the survey’s findings were released on Monday morning.
A third GOP candidate, Elizabeth Rye, was polling at roughly 3 percent, with 9 percent of respondents undecided.
Lake’s lead narrows when accounting for early voting, with her advantage over Lamb decreasing to just six percentage points among those who have already voted. However, she maintains a 56 percent to 45 percent lead among voters who have yet to cast their ballots.
The eventual Republican nominee will face U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) in November, the sole Democrat in the race. Senator Kyrsten Sinema currently holds the position; she ran for office as a Democrat before changing her party affiliation to Independent.
Sinema announced earlier this year that she wouldn’t seek reelection.
Lake, who ran for governor of Arizona in 2022 with Trump’s endorsement, is showing a slight lead over Gallego of two percent, according to an analysis by The Hill.
Early polls had favored the Democrat, but Lake has been consistently emphasizing the issue of immigration, attributing the surge of migrants at Arizona’s southern border to Gallego’s support of President Joe Biden’s policies.
The strategy appears to resonate with some voters in a state that showed mixed political leanings in recent presidential elections, narrowly swinging from a Trump win in 2016 to a Biden win by a slim margin in 2020.
Lake, who started her campaign in February, initially lagged about 5 percent behind Gallego in various polls. However, following Biden’s poorly received debate performance, her numbers improved, and the most recent polling data shows Lake leading Gallego 51-49 percent.
“Incumbent first-term independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, initially elected as a Democrat in 2018 by a margin of 2.3% over then-Republican incumbent Sen. Martha McSally, left the Democratic Party in December 2022. She had initially filed paperwork to run for reelection as an independent but announced in March 2024 that she would not seek a second term,” The Hill’s analysis noted.
“Democrats have won four consecutive statewide federal elections in Arizona and flipped the Governor’s office in 2022, while Republicans control both houses of the Arizona State Legislature and hold a minimum majority in Arizona’s U.S. House delegation. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won Arizona by 3.5% in 2016, while Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden prevailed by 0.3% in 2020,” the analysis continued.
Following her 2022 loss to now-Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, Lake pursued several legal cases challenging the integrity of the election, but without success. But in recent months, Lake has shifted her focus to actively addressing core issues such as Washington’s dysfunction, rampant inflation, and the need for more housing in the Southwest.
The issues appear to be connecting with many voters, positioning her as a candidate in tune with everyday concerns. Additionally, she has garnered significant support within her party, securing endorsements from 23 of the 49 Republican Senators.
The robust backing was evident in April when Trump hosted a fundraising event for her at Mar-a-Lago. At the event, she raised over $1 million, setting a new record for a non-incumbent at the club. Reports noted that the strong financial and political support underscores her prominent stance in the Republican primary scheduled for Tuesday.
