With just days until Election Day, a new poll shows a tight contest in Pennsylvania.
A Monmouth University poll indicates a three-point shift in voter sentiment since last month, favoring former President Donald Trump. According to the data, both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are deadlocked among registered voters, each garnering 42% definite support, with an additional 5% leaning toward either candidate.
Harris’s success hinges on high-propensity voters, while Trump’s chances rest on energizing enough low-propensity voters, who historically show lower levels of engagement but can be pivotal in swing states. Trump maintains a substantial lead among white voters without college degrees, capturing 60% support to Harris’s 35%.
Meanwhile, Harris leads among white college graduates, pulling in 58% of support compared to Trump’s 37%. She also commands a strong showing among Black, Hispanic, and other minority voters, securing 62% support, while Trump trails at 25%.
The poll shows that Pennsylvania’s regional divide is similar to 2020. Trump is performing well in the western and central parts of the state, where he holds 58% support compared to Harris’s 37%. This 52-county area, often referred to as “Trump country,” makes up about 40% of the statewide vote and is crucial for the former president’s chances of securing the state. Four years ago, Trump won this region with 63% of the vote.
Harris has an advantage in the southeastern part of Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs. There, she leads with 58% support to Trump’s 36%, though this falls short of the 66% to 33% margin Joe Biden achieved in the region in 2020. The area accounts for roughly one-third of Pennsylvania’s total vote, making it a key battleground for both campaigns.
Voter history from 2020 suggests a tight race if the same electorate turns out, with Trump receiving 47% and Harris 46% of the vote. However, if the voter profile mirrors the 2022 midterm, Harris leads slightly with 48% to Trump’s 46%. Harris also has stronger support among consistent voters from the past five federal elections, commanding 51% of support to Trump’s 46%. Conversely, Trump performs better among less consistent voters, leading with 47% compared to Harris’s 42%.
The Monmouth poll shows only marginal changes since September, reflecting a stable but intensely divided electorate. Harris’s overall support decreased by one point from 48% last month, but her definite support increased from 40% to 42%. Trump, on the other hand, saw his total support rise from 45% to 47%, with his definite backing also increasing to 42%. Both candidates face a challenge in overcoming strong negative perceptions. Voters who have ruled out supporting Trump have increased from 46% to 49%, while those who say they definitely won’t vote for Harris rose from 44% to 50%.
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, explained, “It’s important to note that any movement we’ve seen since the last Monmouth poll is well within the margin of error. What we said last month still applies. Percentage point shifts are too small to be statistically precise in a poll, but they could be consequential if real. The bottom line is this was an incredibly close race in September and remains so today.”
“Trump’s path to victory in Pennsylvania is by turning out low-propensity voters. In a normal election this may be difficult to do. For many, their lack of participation is due to an underlying distrust in government itself. Being drawn out to participate in the democratic process by Trump’s ‘burn it down’ appeal could be the ultimate irony.”
The Monmouth University Polling Institute ranks fifth on FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings, which evaluates pollsters based on historical accuracy and transparency.
As Pennsylvania remains a bellwether, both campaigns are expected to make a final push in the state, knowing that its 19 electoral votes could be decisive in determining the next president.
