Kamala Harris’s chances of winning several do-or-die swing states are rapidly shrinking in light of new numbers putting the vice president in perilous territory among likely voters.
A new poll released Monday by the New York Times and Sienna College shows what the campaign of former President Donald Trump has crowed about for weeks: that swing voters in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia are trending away from his opponent. Strategists for Harris have prepared for the distinct possibility that she loses all three states and more, including Wisconsin and Michigan, but keeps Pennsylvania in her column while eking out enough votes in Nebraska and Maine to earn a handful of Electoral College votes. That plan, however, is also on life support as Nebraska Republicans appear ready to amend the state’s delegate apportionment rules.
In Arizona, Trump leads Harris by 5%, a marked shift from just a month ago when the vice president was ahead by the same amount. In North Carolina, Trump leads by 2% after Harris led by 2% last month; the same is true in Georgia, where Trump leads by 4% after previous polls showed Harris ahead by the same amount in mid-August. The expansive survey of nearly 2,700 voters was conducted the week after a second assassination attempt against President Trump, suggesting public sympathy may have again tilted back in his favor. The poll’s 3% margin of error means the Republican’s leads in Arizona and Georgia are statistically certain.
It remains to be seen whether the declining fortunes of Mark Robinson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina, become an albatross for Trump. An explosive CNN story last week alleged the Black Republican frequented online porn forums while leaving a litany of messages including one declaring himself a “Black Nazi.” A leaked memo from within the Harris campaign suggested she would attempt to tie Trump to Robinson, who shed the majority of his staff over the weekend but remains in the race.
Arizona, meanwhile, has become an epicenter in the nation’s debate over refugees and illegal immigration as crossings spiral out of control. Openings in the fence line with Mexico have prompted Texas to install razor wire along its border with other border states, including New Mexico. Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate, is focusing her campaign on the state’s immigration crisis and blaming her opponent, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), for supporting President Joe Biden’s executive orders increasing the number of annual crossings and applications for asylum.
In Georgia, the prosecution of Trump by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has fallen into disrepair and reminded voters about the “witch hunt” which the former president claims is a fixation by Biden and his Democratic enablers. He is seeking to dismiss the case on the grounds of prosecutorial misconduct.