In a potential 2024 contest against former President Donald Trump, the “Keys to the White House” are leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris; nevertheless, a definitive forecast for the 2024 election has not yet been issued.
Allan Lichtman, an election forecaster who has been accurate in almost every race since 1984, developed a method for making predictions about upcoming presidential elections, the New York Post reported.
Thirteen true-or-false questions make up Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House,” which he claims provides a clear indicator of the candidate who will be declared the winner on the autumn ballot.
Every question concerns one of the two rival nominees; if the answer is “true,” the contestant gets a “key,” and if the answer is “false,” the other contestant wins the point. The candidate of one party is expected to win if they receive six or more keys.
Democrats received one “key” to President Biden’s incumbency at the start of the cycle, but there has since been a significant change to the ballot.
The 13 “keys” are: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
According to Lichtman’s projection, Democrats currently have six of the thirteen keys, with Harris being the most likely contender.
Three things are in the hands of Republicans: gaining the majority in the House in the 2022 midterm elections; the incumbent not running for reelection; and the incumbent’s lack of charisma.
Although a formal forecast for the 2024 contest has not yet been made, Lichtman told News Nation that he thinks “a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.”
There are still four keys that have not been distributed.
The third-party element is one of the remaining factors, which Lichtman claims is noteworthy considering the position of independent contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the contest.
The concepts of “no social unrest,” “foreign military failure,” and “foreign military success” are likewise up for debate.
By the criteria used by the election prognosticator, Democrats would be considered the “losers” if they were to lose three more keys.
Lichtman accurately projected that Biden would win in 2020 and Trump in 2016. After Democrats select their nominee at the DNC in August, the historian will release his final forecast for this campaign.
WATCH:
Democrats have received a “talking points” memo to use in defense of Vice President Kamala Harris when confronted with her role as a failed “border czar” after years of chaos and record illegal crossings along the southern and northern U.S. borders, according to Fox News.
The report said an unnamed Democratic lawmaker who confirmed the memo told the outlet that they were not sure who was responsible for its distribution. Fox obtained a copy of the memo, which was also posted to social media.
Among the talking points:
— Harris was never appointed “border czar”
— The title was “invented by Republicans” and the media
— Harris was never asked by Biden to lead immigration and border policy
— The VP was tasked with addressing the “root causes” of mass migration, with a focus on Central America
— Mass migration from “root causes” countries like Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador has decreased
The memo comes as the issue of illegal immigration and migrants flooding American cities has become a top concern this election cycle.
