Former President Donald Trump has regained his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the latest iteration of the New York Times/Siena College presidential election survey.
In a two-way race, Trump leads Harris by one point, with Trump receiving 48 percent of the vote compared to 47 percent for Harris. With this party candidates included, the former president’s lead expands to two points in a 47 to 45 result.
Trump is slightly outpacing Harris in terms of voter enthusiasm, though both parties remain relatively motivated. Among Trump 2020 voters, an astonishing 97 percent of respondents said they will be voting for him again in November. Just two percent said they will not be supporting him this time.
Harris also holds a commanding lead among Biden 2020 voters, as 92 percent of respondents indicated that they plan to vote for Harris. An additional six percent of Biden 2020 voters said they will not be supporting Harris.
The former president holds a nine-point edge among voters who did not vote in 2020.
Keeping in line with months of polling trends, the two candidates find themselves split rather significantly along gender lines. Among men, Trump is garnering 56 percent of the vote compared to 39 percent to Harris. The gap is similar among women, as Harris received support from 53 percent of respondents while Trump received 42 percent.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll found Harris with a slight lead among independents, 48 percent of whom expressed support for Harris.
Along age lines, Trump received very favorable results among voters between the ages of 18-29. While Harris is maintaining an eight point lead among the demographic, her numbers are down significantly compared with President Biden’s dominant result in 2020.
Harris holds a rather commanding lead among voters between the ages of 30 and 44, while Trump is winning voters between the ages of 45 and 64 by an almost identical margin.
The latest poll provides yet another positive boost for former President Trump, whose poll numbers have surged upwards in recent weeks after Harris enjoyed a massive boost after becoming the de-facto Democratic nominee in July.
Veteran election forecaster Nate Silver is currently giving Trump a 60.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, a dramatic increase from just a few weeks prior. Back in late August, Silver’s model gave Harris a slight edge at 53.5 percent, while Trump trailed at 46.1 percent.